People with doctorates in economics may pore over their charts and computer models, some may choose to study the entrails of a cannibal shrew, but for the real skinny on where the global economy is headed it’s best to check the sales figures of budget food lines at supermarkets.
Official Confirmation the Recession is over
According to CBC News (July 23, 2009), “The recession is over, the Bank of Canada said in its quarterly Monetary Policy Report released Thursday.
“After shrinking since the last quarter of 2008, the Canadian economy will grow by an annualized rate of 1.3 percent in the current quarter, the bank said.”
On August 20, 2009, the Christian Science Monitor reported, “America’s worst recession since the 1930s is just about over.” The newspaper used a Conference Board Report as the source for its confident prediction.
Supermarket Sales Checked for Economic Predictions
BBC News reports the sale of baked beans has levelled off a bit and this is taken as a sign the worst of the economic troubles are now in the past. Anthony Reuben writes that there’s light at the end of the economic tunnel “and that is reflected in the all-important baked bean sales figures.
“In the three months from April to June, baked bean sales were up 15 percent compared with the same quarter of 2008…That sounds impressive, but it shows a slowing in the rate of growth. Every month from November 2008 to May 2009, sales of baked beans grew by about 20 percent.”
The conclusion to be drawn from this is that people buy low-cost items when they are short of money. When the cash begins to flow a bit more freely they move a little higher up the food chain.
Paint Sales Confirm the Bean Indicator
There are other retail tea leaves to be read in the sales of paint, at least in the United Kingdom. The Nielsen market research company reports that sales of paint are picking up.
According to the BBC, paint sales have been slow throughout 2008 and up to Match 2008. “Then in April, sales suddenly improved, with sales in the three months from April to June rising 16.2 percent compared with the same quarter of 2008.”
That’s a sign that people are once again spending a little to fix up their homes.
People still Feel the Recession’s Sting
Despite what the sales of baked beans, Kraft Dinner, and paint may say, the average person on the street feels the hard times still have some bite left.
The Christian Science Monitor quoted Ken Goldstein, an economist at The Conference Board, “For all of this talk about ‘Are we there yet, Daddy?’ to the average consumer out there…it still feels like [a recession]. Even if the recession does end in September or October, it’s going to feel like that through the holidays.”
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